8 February 2008
Posted to the web 8 February 2008

Reason Wafawarova

THE announcement by Dr Simba Makoni that he will be running for the presidency in the March 29 harmonised elections has created interest among Zimbabweans and more so in the circles of the British ruling elite.

Clearly the announcement on Tuesday February 5, was timed to shock and awe Zanu-PF, particularly its leader, President Mugabe as well as the opposition in its collective sense.

Zanu-PF was in the middle of concluding the selection of its election candidates through countrywide primary elections and there were reports that this process had excluded Simba Makoni from participating in his home constituency of Makoni Central. What a way of hitting back for Makoni and his handlers and colleagues. The idea was to take advantage of the recent wave of speculation and rumour about his political ambitions and pull a fast one on Zanu-PF in a move designed to sway public opinion from the foregone conclusion of a Zanu-PF victory -- creating further speculation.

On the other hand, the timing was meant to further cripple an already limping opposition still smarting from the humiliating circus disguised as unity talks. On the Sunday before the Makoni Tuesday, the MDC factions had both emerged from two days of bickering disguised as unity talks with tails stuck between their legs. Arthur Mutambara and Morgan Tsvangirai were hunting for the most face saving phrases in telling their disillusioned supporters that they had scored another own goal against Tony Blair's political project.

For meeting to just reaffirm and consolidate the destructive effects of the October 12 2005 split, the MDC leadership had just invited the wrath of their supporters and Western backers and Internet blogs were on fire with all manner denigrating on the person of Tsvangirai in particular and the rest of the opposition leadership in general.

Motivated by speculation and overrating compliments of being the only hope in Zimbabwe, plus a closed door within Zanu-PF and the confusion created by the failure of the opposition factions to reunite, Dr Makoni decided to announce what Major Mbudzi decided to call a rescue package. It is not clear whether Mbudzi was talking of rescuing Makoni from political oblivion or rescuing the MDC supporters from having no one to follow. Whichever way, this is Mbudzi; the man who lives up to his army title and name -- many times just behaving like an old billy goat.

The MDC support base seems to be already in celebratory mood with the Makoni announcement and a chunking or transfer of that support base from the MDC to Makoni will spell doom for the already doomed MDC leadership.

However, it remains to be seen if Makoni can make any meaningful inroads into Zanu-PF strongholds, particularly in the rural areas. It also remains to be seen if the Matabeleland bloc vote, that is perceived to be pro-opposition, will go Makoni's way or not. There are many interesting scenarios with this development. The question is who will command the urban vote, who will take the rural vote, who will be favoured by the young people, who will be most organised to reach out to most people and so on and so forth.

With just over 50 days left before election day, Makoni might have taken a dangerous gamble in trying to emulate what the nine-month-old MDC did in 2000, albeit with hoped better precision this time around.

The MDC then rode on a massive protest vote against Zanu-PF by the urbanites and they came close to winning the election just falling short by a handful four seats.

Makoni probably reckons that if a little known trade unionist leader with hardly any education to warrant mentioning could come close then it must be pretty easy for a holder of a PhD in Chemistry, a man who couples that up with a smile that the BBC cannot find words or description for.

It is this BBC factor that will set us rolling into looking at exactly what it is that has pushed Makoni into committing political harakiri. Surely it cannot be his mere sharing of the view that the economic situation needs to change or that he has suddenly consulted with many people over the problems affecting Zimbabwe. This Makoni has always done since the problems started and if he thought he was the answer to all this he should have put himself forward way back instead of doing so a mere 53 days before polling day.

Opportunism is always a thornbush in any revolution but it is always a fact that spiteful people often drive opportunists into action and their objective is to use the opportunists either in destroying their political rivals or achieving any other political goal. Announcing participation on the eve of an election is a sign of opportunistic behaviour and it may be of interest to figure out who might be driving Makoni at this point in time.

No opportunist carries a banner saying that they are taking advantage of a happening such as the failure of reunification by the MDC or the perceived disgruntlement in Zanu-PF. They will, like every politician worth the name try to hide behind the national interest and the plight of the people.

What is clear is that the Western community, particularly Britain, has already said Makoni is acceptable to them. It is not only naïve but also plain stupid to assume that the yardstick for acceptability by the West includes the welfare of Zimbabweans or any other moral code for that matter.

The events in Kenya are portrayed as a result of deep-seated tribal rivalry manifesting itself through violence without even bothering to ask why these tribes have never killed each other in the 44 years they have been independent politically. What the Western media will never tell the world is that Britain and her allies are deeply concerned with the growing economic relations between Kenya and China. Equally they will never tell the world that they are dying to destroy the China-Sudan economic relations as well as the Angola-China economic relations, together with the Zimbabwe-China economic deals.

In 2004, Kenya reported that trade with China had grown by 34 percent and in April 2007, China announced that their goal was to achieve US$100 billion trade volume with Africa by 2030. In response to this trend, the Financial Times of Britain reported on December 9 2007 that the EU-Africa summit, which was held in Portugal, was "meant to showcase a new partnership to counter China's growing influence in Europe's former colonies."

This undying resolve by the West to stop the growing influence of China is why Kenya has been destabilised. In fact there is currently a broader goal by the West aimed at the general destabilisation of black Africa. In Kenya the US, UK and the EU are all at play with the Anglo-American coalition backing Kibaki's government while the EU is backing Odinga's opposition. It is like the foiled coup for Equatorial Guinea in 2004 where the EU was sponsoring Severo Moto's opposition while the Anglo-American alliance was backing incumbent president Mr Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo.

The broader aim in Kenya, as already stated is to stop Kenya's move towards China. The other worry is the unchecked tendency by Africa to move towards self-determination and the ever-widening distance between Africa and the West. The AU stance on Zimbabwe's participation at the EU-Africa Summit in December 2007 shocked the West and such tendencies have to be stopped at all costs. The warning by Britain's Tory leader David Camerron to China on its dealings with Zimbabwe was not a coincidence at all.

There is a resolve to stop the Zimbabwe-China economic relations and Morgan Tsvangirai's failure to lead the opposition MDC has meant that the West, through Britain have had to look elsewhere to achieve their goal.

The African Union, Sadc and individual countries like Ethiopia and Mali have of late been speaking against Western domination with what the West sees as reckless abandon. Sadc has given the West no room on Zimbabwe and the AU has generally followed suit. Mali and Ethiopia, together with Uganda are viewed largely as Western allies but they have all taken turns to condemn the West on Zimbabwe.

This coming after the bold decision by Zimbabwe to reclaim its stolen lands in 2000 has made the country a hotbed of African politics. In Kenya, western covert operatives are paying some local Kenyans who in turn are using Somali refugees, other foreigners, local thugs and criminals to create violence.

Meanwhile, the Americans are using their ties with the Kenyan security forces to ensure that the violence is not decisively stopped. The violence has resulted in billions of dollars being lost in potential revenue and this will create a dependency which the West will hurriedly take advantage of by rushing in with aid.

Election rigging might or might not have taken place in Kenya but the issue at hand now is that the rigging aspect has been used as a cover to the destabilisation campaign.

Right wing commentators in the Western media have been offering a racist liberal explanation aimed at convincing left-leaning people in the West as well as the generality of blacks that the violence in Kenya should be blamed on backwardness, irrationality and tribalism.

They argue that ethnic rivalry is at the centre of inequality, poverty and corruption in Kenya but they will not talk of the unresolved land question in that country. They will not talk of how British companies continue to milk Kenya at the expense of its masses.

It would appear like after the West have unsuccessfully paid and played Tsvangirai against the people of Zimbabwe for the past eight years they have finally succeeded in securing a dissident from the ruling Zanu-PF party.

Zimbabwe is target number one for punishment against the self-determination crusade in Africa, especially with the land question still sending chills down every imperialist's spine. The fiery and inspiring speeches President Mugabe delivers at international summits have only compounded their fear.

The current solidarity shared with Zimbabwe by the rest of Africa makes regime change priority number one for the West. With all these factors going against the West's bidding in Zimbabwe, the opposition have been a huge disappointment that even Mark Brezinzki, the current US architect of colour revolutions has given up throwing his money down the pit that is the MDC.

The Westerners have apparently decided to switch the MDC support base to someone else, particularly one who can also get votes from Zanu-PF. The EU was pressurising the Anglo-American alliance to change their sanction stance on Zimbabwe and to reach a compromise with the ruling party so that their countries could move into Zimbabwe early enough before China scoops everything the country has to offer economically.

This pressure has seen the Anglo-American alliance searching deep inside Zanu-PF for anyone they can term moderate or reformist.

Now they have got Makoni and the hope is that while he may have difficulties reversing the land reform programme he will come in handy in stopping the Chinese incursion in the Zimbabwean economy.

The question that needs a speedy answer is whether or not Makoni can fulfil the Western bidding on Zimbabwe. There is no way Makoni and his internal and external backers can steal the people's revolution from Zanu-PF. The rural masses of Zimbabwe are quite clear on this one. It is the urban vote that gets swayed with the protest vote and they give their vote as a bloc.

The problem with Kibaki is that he got sponsored by the West together with Odinga and they thought they were free to do the African bidding on Kenya's affairs including jumping for the often-touted win-win economic deals with China. Having failed to meet the West's expectations, Kenya now has to put up with violence that is precisely a sponsored misadventure.

These are the lessons Zimbabweans need to take before taking people like Makoni seriously.

He has come from an angle celebrated by the likes of John Makumbe, even making the ever-obnoxious Makumbe declare that Zimbabwe "is a free country" and that as such Dr Makoni was free to challenge for presidency.

Fair enough, but since when did John, the son of Makumbe, believe that Zimbabwe was a free country?

If Makoni and his handlers are on an Operation Noah as Major Mbudzi asserts, then they can only rescue the hopeless and desperate Western ruling elite who have now found the going in Zimbabwe very tough, not to mention the African challenge as a whole.

Let time speak but a people's revolution cannot be stolen and there is every chance that the masses of Zimbabwe will deal with this new challenge the very way they dealt with the MDC when they thought they were at their best, that is give Zanu-PF a resounding mandate.