By Reason Wafawarova April 7, 2008

It would appear like both the delays by the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission in announcing the presidential election result and the claim of victory by the opposition MDC may be political moves to invite a conflict.

One can easily see that if the opposition chose to take any action that backs their claims of victory then all they will be doing will be inviting trouble related to treasonous offences or a coup. On the other hand the MDC is hoping that by merely announcing an election victory, they may trap the ruling ZANU PF into starting a conflict that would present the MDC as victims of a ruthless dictatorship, and of course the ultimate goal is to justify some form of international intervention – most preferably from the West. In American political lexicon this tactic is called provocative engagement and the CIA has often used it via stooge politicians in many countries, particularly in Latin America and the Middle East.

Israel has always used provocative engagement to push Palestine into a conflict each time they want an excuse for testing their new weapons on the innocent civilians of that country. In 2006, Israel kept encroaching into Lebanese borders from the South until two of their soldiers were captured and they used that as an excuse to bomb and demolish entire cities, airports and roads, in the process killing thousands of innocent Lebanese civilians.

The West is already pushing for peacekeepers in Zimbabwe because they reckon an election run off would require such a force as they still maintain that Zimbabwe cannot have a peaceful electoral process – that despite the fact that the first round of elections went smoothly without any incidence. The ABC of Australia has already highlighted the need for peacekeepers to be deployed into Zimbabwe ahead of the run off. Everyone can surely see that Zimbabweans are keeping their own peace perfectly well but for the West the only peace that can ever be in Zimbabwe is peace without a ZANU PF government.

Anyway, such a move would need the endorsement of the UN Security Council and of course there has to be good reasons at international law to justify the deploying of peacekeepers. Some of the acceptable reasons include a threat of international peace or failure by the incumbent government to maintain peace and order, as well as an invitation by the affected state.

The opposition is in a dilemma. On one hand they cannot afford to take any action that is physically confrontational because that will give the state good reason to take the necessary action in order to keep order. On the other hand they need to engage the government provocatively in order to secure international sympathy and an excuse for their Western backers to intervene. They have been making efforts to achieve this.

First was Tendayi Biti claiming victory with his un-tallying figures that did not even make up the 50.3 % victory he was announcing. The Government must have studied the words used in that announcement and they must have failed to see a strong case for either a coup or treason.
The state obviously looked at the possibility of being swayed into a conflict that would present them as unnecessarily heavy-handed. To their credit the state wisely ignored Tendayi Biti like nothing had ever happened.

Then was Morgan Tsvangirai coming in with no figures but vaguely claiming that the MDC had won the vote with a clear majority. Morgan Tsvangirai was careful not to claim victory as a person or as a presidential candidate, avoiding any implications of declaring himself President. Again the state read the move well and there were no dramas after Morgan Tsvangirai’s vague claims of victory.

Now there is this new element of reports about former white settler farmers going to Karoi and Chiredzi to declare a come back via a Tsvangirai government. If these statements have any sense of substance in them then this might the worst mistake ever to come from the MDC and their Western backers. The idea is to provoke war veterans into a conflict of the magnitude seen in 2000 when peasants and war veterans occupied the white held farms. If the war veterans did embark on a warpath with these reverse-role invaders, then the hope is that the country deteriorates into chaos and that the chaos may justify the much-needed international (read Western) intervention.

The biggest weakness of this strategy is that the MDC is not likely to get any sane black Zimbabwean supporting this cause, let alone come to the rescue of the white farm invaders. There is simply no political will to reverse the land reform programme among the generality of Zimbabweans across the political divide.

It would appear like the MDC has failed to provoke the government from a safe distance where they simultaneously avoid a brush with the law. On the other hand the government seems to be waiting for the MDC to cross the line and then thwart them at their own game.

While everyone keeps hoping that the ZEC will announce the presidential result soon it appears like the MDC are not prepared for a run off. Indeed they have every reason to be afraid. They have not really won single candidate elections against ZANU PF that much. The 2000 to 2005 Parliament had eleven by elections, presenting a one on one challenge on a single candidate battle and the only time the MDC won was when they retained Highfield constituency after they had expelled Munyaradzi Gwisayi and also when they won the Kuwadzana by election after the death of Learnmore Jongwe. In fact they started that Parliament on 57 seats and ended it on 48 seats, later being reduced to 41 in the next election in 2005.

Needless to say the MDC easily recalls the one candidate battle of the 2002 presidential election. They know very well that when it comes to this type of battle the ZANU PF campaign machinery can be ruthlessly effective. They know very well about the war veterans, the youth wing, the women’s league, the Commissariat department, the grass roots structures and President Mugabe’s sealing star rallies.

There is every chance that the foolish aspect of white farmers having indicated their resolve to repossess the already repossessed land will turn the whole run-off into a land issue.

In that context anyone who supports the MDC would no longer be seen as being after mere change but after returning repossessed land to the white settler farmers.
If the issue is played hard enough in the media then there are chances some people will play safe in their relations with the MDC, particularly those new voters from the rural areas.

It is most unlikely that SADC, the AU and any of the African country would be too eager for foreign intervention in Zimbabwe, and Thabo Mbeki has already told the world to take it easy with Zimbabwe. Tsvangirai must be really livid about this. He has never really trusted Mbeki for the past eight years.

The point is that if Africa is not ready for intervention then the UK and the US will have to stick to their guns away from African soil, let alone Zimbabwean soil.

There is no doubt that the Western alliance is just waiting for the slightest pretext to be in Zimbabwe and that intervention is not intended to benefit Zimbabweans attain their aspirations at all. It is meant to provide an opportunity to push out the ZANU PF government and to install a compliant MDC regime.

Obviously the ZANU PF government is aware of all the intentions much as it is confident that such intervention is virtually unachievable and that is why they can afford to play the waiting game with the MDC provocation games.

Dear reader, whenever the results are going to be announced; this game is getting bigger than a mere election. It is in the best interest of the opposition MDC to wait for official results with patience and may be to prepare for the run off instead of throwing the meek blows we have been seeing coming through childish Press conferences.

The MDC cannot achieve anything by inciting their supporters into protests or violence either. That is a disastrous route to take because it simply won’t achieve the intended goal.

This writer does not believe that the result is being held because Tsvangirai won the majority 50% plus vote. Not at all; he failed just like President Mugabe most likely failed. ZEC might be right that irregularities so far discovered might be the major reasons for the delay but what is certain is that preparations for a run off are already underway.

This alone means that there will be a run off and also that there will be an announcement of the election result – of course to pave way for such a run off. As it is many people have already lost the interest they had last week and it would appear waiting patiently might be the answer for everyone.